- Luckin Coffee, which has put up a strong fight against Starbucks in Asia, is looking to the US.
- The Chinese coffee brand, known for its heavy discounts, reported a strong third quarter.
- Analysts say Luckin is a force to be reckoned with.
Luckin Coffee is putting up a strong fight against Starbucks in Asia. Now, it's planning to bring that rivalry into the US.
Here's the state of play: Starbucks is trying to pull itself out of a rut. In its quarter ending September 29, Starbucks reported a 7% decline in sales worldwide. In China, the company's sales slid by 14% compared to the same period last year, to $783.7 million.
In August, it appointed Brian Niccol as its new CEO. Niccol has said his plan to turn around the coffee chain involves faster orders, adding a human touch to the ordering process, and positioning the brand's outlets as "third spaces."
Luckin reported a strong third quarter. Its sales rose 41.4% year over year, and its quarterly revenue was $1.452 billion. The chain is known for its aggressive deals, unusual flavors like a Big Cheese coffee drink, and mobile ordering.
Both brands are well established in Singapore, with multiple outlets in the city-state's Central Business District. On a recent weekday around lunchtime, I stopped by both a Luckin and a Starbucks to see how they compare in price, menu options, and vibe.
Luckin versus Starbucks
I started at Luckin Coffee.
When I walked in, I found people waiting around the collection counter for their drinks. Others were sitting around at tables drinking coffee.
But most customers seemed to be in a rush, ready to grab their drinks and go.
To order any menu item at Luckin, customers have to download the brand's app and place their order digitally. Staff members at the counter don't take orders.
The app was easy to use, though it hit me with numerous pop-ups for discount vouchers. Because I was a new user, every drink on the menu was half off for me.
The most expensive drink on the menu was an Iced Oat Shakerato listed for 8 Singapore dollars, or $6. With the discount, it cost me SG$4.
There were at least five orders waiting for collection before me. Still, my drink was ready in under five minutes, ready to be collected as soon as I scanned the QR code on my app. I didn't have to speak to a single person throughout the process.
After that, I walked about 100 feet to the nearest Starbucks, which had a large seating area. Some people in business clothes were taking lunch meetings there, while others hung around working on laptops.
The barista was friendly when I asked about the most expensive drink on their menu. It turned out to be one of their seasonal holiday drinks.
I chose the Salted Pretzel Cocoa Oatmilk Latte, which came out to SG$10.20.
Unlike Luckin, there was no one in line. I was out with my coffee, a venti-sized drink topped with crushed pretzels, in under three minutes, slightly faster than at Luckin.
Overall, Starbucks' most expensive drink was more expensive than Luckin's. Luckin had more customers, so the wait time was slightly longer than in Starbucks.
The battle for coffee domination
Luckin Coffee was founded in Beijing in October 2017. It filed for bankruptcy in the US in 2021 after the fallout of an accounting fraud scandal, in which it was revealed that it had faked nearly half of its roughly $732 million sales from 2019.
Today, it has 21,343 stores globally.
Luckin launched its first international stores in Singapore in March 2023, and the city-state now has more than 40 outlets. Now, it's eyeing the US market for expansion opportunities.
"We are also actively evaluating opportunities in the United States and other markets," Luckin wrote in its Q3 earnings report.
Representatives for Luckin Coffee didn't respond to a request for comment from BI for this story.
Starbucks has 40,199 outlets globally — nearly twice as many as Luckin does. Of that count, 7,596 stores are in China, an increase from the 6,806 it had a year ago.
When asked for comment, a Starbucks representative in China directed BI to the remarks made by Niccol and the brand's finance chief, Rachel Ruggeri, in its Q4 earnings call.
In the call, Ruggeri said sales in China were "weighed down by intensified competition and a soft macro environment that impacted consumer spending."
Luckin isn't Starbucks' only rising competition in the US. It's also contending with the likes of Dutch Bros. and 7 Brew.
"There are concerns about speed of service and operational complexity, and new menu innovation has been lacking," R.J. Hottovy, the head of analytical research at Placer.ai, told BI about Starbucks.
"Starbucks' decline in visits also comes at a time when other coffee and beverage chains are seeing year-over-year visit increases, reinforcing that new product innovations aren't connecting with consumers," he added.
Analysts say Starbucks should be worried about Luckin Coffee
Luckin's pricing and focus on technology gives it an edge over Starbucks, consumer analysts say.
David Yu, a finance professor from NYU, told BI Luckin is "all about technology." By comparison, he said Starbucks' use of technology, such as ordering on its app, is "pretty weak."
Yaling Jiang, a China consumer research expert behind the newsletter "Following the Yuan," published an article on Monday about Starbucks' performance in China. In it, Jiang said Starbucks has continually failed to "meet Chinese consumers' changing perception about product price."
Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, a consumer and equity analyst at Aletheia Capital in Singapore, told BI that he thinks Luckin "has an edge over Starbucks at the moment" because of its novelty.
However, he said Luckin may still be in an uphill battle in the US.
"Luckin Coffee's plans in the US may not go as smoothly as one would expect because the US is a very complex market, where Starbucks is much better entrenched than in Asia," said Tiruchelvam.
He said it's also cheaper to set up outlets in Asian markets than in the US.
"The expansion costs, in terms of the cost of rolling out an outlet versus the payback from it, are actually far more challenging in the US than in Asia," Tiruchelvam added.
Yu echoed those sentiments, saying aggressive discounting is not a sustainable approach for Luckin.
"I always say discounting is never a great long-term strategy. It could be used effectively for short-term purposes," he said.
However, Starbucks' increasingly expensive price tag has created an "opening" for Luckin, Yu said.
"So I think that's good timing for Luckin's perspective if they're willing to go and discount and price aggressively under to gain customers," Yu added.